Trade Event Contracts

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PRODUCTS

Trade Prediction Markets
at Interactive Brokers

Trade climate and economic events where prices reflect probability.

Participate in the future as it happens

Explore Markets How it Works

Trade the Future —
One Event at a Time

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let participants trade on the outcomes of future events. Each contract represents a defined outcome, and prices reflect the collective probability.

Why Prediction Markets Matter

Prediction markets offer a structured, transparent way to express views on events such as climate, and economics. Interactive Brokers provides the tools and platform to trade with confidence.

Why Trade Event Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?

Trade Every Asset Class from One Platform

Trade event contracts alongside stocks, ETFs, options, currencies, and bonds from a single unified platform — and apply those insights across your portfolio.

Earn Interest with Forecast Contracts in the Form of an Incentive Coupon2

Earn interest based on the market value of your positions. Interest accrues daily at the current rate of USD 3.38% APY and is paid monthly.

Competitive Event Contract Trading Costs

Event Contracts start as low as $0.01 per contract.

Advanced Trading Tools for Event Contracts

Use IBKR’s ScaleTrader algorithm to efficiently scale into large positions by buying at lower prices or selling at higher prices.

Prediction Market Simulator

Learn More About
Prediction Markets

Explore free IBKR Campus lessons to learn further how prediction markets work.

Trading Event Contracts at IBKR

Practical Use of Event Contracts

Hedging Economic and Climate Risks

Take the First Step with Prediction Markets

New to Interactive Brokers? Open an Account.

Trade Event Contracts

Frequently Asked Questions

IBKR Prediction Markets offers exchange-listed event contracts that allow you to trade on yes-or-no outcomes across categories such as economics, finance, and climate indicators. These contracts typically settle at either $0 or $1, depending on the outcome.

Event Contracts are priced in dollars and quoted in small increments, with prices generally between about $0.01 and $0.99, depending on the market's perceived likelihood. A higher "Yes" price typically indicates the market views the event as more likely, based on real-time trading

Yes. IBKR Prediction Market is fully integrated into the Interactive Brokers trading platform, allowing clients to manage event contract positions alongside stocks, options, futures, bonds, and other assets. All positions are available with consolidated reporting, real time position tracking, and unified portfolio management.

Your maximum loss is generally limited to the amount you paid for the contract, because these contracts are designed with fixed settlement outcomes (subject to fees and applicable rules).

IBKR's Prediction Markets platform is available to eligible Interactive Brokers clients. Availability of specific prediction market products and contracts may vary based on the IBKR affiliate and the client's country of residence. Please visit the IBKR Prediction Markets page for the most up to date eligibility information.

The profit per contract is generally the settlement value (typically $1) minus your purchase price (and any applicable fees).

Economic prediction markets are markets where participants trade yes/no event contracts on measurable economic outcomes like inflation thresholds, rate decisions, or recession timing. IBKR Prediction Markets examples include questions tied to CPI and the Fed Funds Target Rate.

IBKR Prediction Markets event contracts examples include inflation indicators, interest-rate targets, and growth-related metrics (depending on what's listed). Each contract is tied to a clear event question and a defined resolution process.

Yes. But the ability depends on market liquidity and availability prices at the time.

Climate prediction markets are markets where participants trade on measurable climate indicators (for example, temperature or atmospheric CO₂ thresholds), depending on listings. IBKR Prediction Markets includes climate indicators like temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ as examples.

IBKR Prediction Markets states trading is available around the clock, seven days a week, though the system may have periodic maintenance windows.

The home page states event contracts are offered at zero-commission at Interactive Brokers. (As with any market, bid/ask spreads and market liquidity can still affect your execution price.) Please review our commissions.

Markets estimate probability through trading: prices move as participants incorporate new data releases, forecasts, and macro news into what they're willing to pay. IBKR Prediction Markets also highlights that the "Yes" price is based on how likely an event is to happen.

ForecastEx Event Contracts pay an “interest-like” incentive coupon that accrues daily and is paid monthly. The current rate is 3.38% APY. The coupon amount is based on the closing market value of positions.

Check the event question, the deadline, and the settlement/resolution source so you understand exactly what determines the outcome. This is especially important for closely related outcomes (e.g., popular vote vs. electoral outcomes) where definitions matter. Please note that each contract has a unique closing date.

No — event contracts are event-based derivatives with fixed settlement outcomes tied to a question, not ownership in a company. They're designed to express a view on an event outcome with a predetermined payoff structure.

Disclosures

  1. Payments equivalent to interest in the form of an incentive coupon subject to variation with benchmark rates.

Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME, and E-mini are registered marks of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. ForecastEx is not affiliated with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. and neither it, nor its affiliates, sponsor or endorse ForecastEx or its products in any way. In particular, ForecastEx US 500 Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

S&P 500 is a registered mark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC. ForecastEx is not affiliated with Standard & Poor’s and neither it, nor its affiliates, sponsor or endorse ForecastEx or its products in any way. In particular, ForecastEx US 500 Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Standard & Poor’s.

NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100, NASDAQ Composite, and other related marks are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. (together with its affiliates, "Nasdaq"). ForecastEx is not affiliated with Nasdaq, and neither it nor its products are sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by Nasdaq. The Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, or approved by Nasdaq in any way. Nasdaq makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any product offered by ForecastEx.

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